How The Mighty Fall

Last week, I went to select a book for a short trip that I could easily carry and read quickly. Two books in my need-to-read pile fit this criteria: "Only The Paranoid Survive" by Andy Groves, and "How The Mighty Fall" by Jim Collins. At the time, I did not consider that these two books addressed the same topic. Both discuss challenges facing companies, and explain that some companies rise to the occasion while others falter. Andy Groves describes how Intel transitioned from memory to microprocessor, dealt with a Pentium flaw in 1994, and managed through the explosive growth of PCs. Intel overcame these potentially catastrophic events thorough disciplined pursuit of its core business philosophies. Jim Collins studies great companies that stumbled or failed in an attempt to understand the underlying causes of business decline.

Made in America

We hear much talk about the decline of manufacturing in America. Some argue that America has lost its manufacturing capacity. The data from the most recent year available (2010) paints a somewhat different picture. Not only is the U.S. by far the largest economy with 23.1% of the world's GDP (China is second with 9.3% of the world's GDP), the U.S. is the second largest manufacturer. In 2010, America's manufacturing output was $1.952 trillion, just behind China's $1.995 trillion. Yes, in 2010 the U.S. lost the title as the world's largest manufacturer that it held for more than a century, but America is far from having lost its manufacturing capacity. America still manufacturers19.4% of the world's goods.

We Are Living in Exponential Times

The world is changing more rapidly than ever before and that rate of change is accelerating.

This YouTube video about the rapid progression of information technology was shown at a Sony executive conference last year. Here are some excepts:

• The first text message was sent in 1992. Today, the number of messages sent every day exceeds the number of people on Earth.
• It took radio 38 years to reach 50 million people, TV 13 years, the Internet 4 years, the iPod 3 years, and Facebook 2 years.
• The number of internet devices in 1984 was one thousand, in 1992 one million, in 2008 one billion.
• 4 exabytes (4 x 10^19) of unique information will be generated this year: more that the previous 5,000 years combined.
• The amount of technical information is doubling every year.
• The most in-demand jobs of 2010 did not exist in 2004.

Headwinds

Today I went riding on a windy day. There was a 20 m.p.h. headwind as I started an out-and-back ride. On the way out, I just had to keep my head down and grind. There wasn't much else that I could do but exert maximum and constant effort. When I reached the furthest out point and turned back, suddently things were effortless and I felt like Superman. Even climbing the hills seemed easy.

At present, our country is facing some strong headwinds. Things are tough and have been for some time. Every success seems to be met with new resistance and there is little momentum to be gained. This thought also made me realize that things will turn. The economy, unemployment, and even the political climate are cyclical. In times like this, we forget that it will not always be a struggle. It is healthy to remember that things will get better.

As I was riding my bike back home, I decided that I will plan ahead for better times. I will be prepared to take advantage of the tailwinds when things turn. In the meantime, I will keep my head down, fight against the prevailing headwinds, and look forward to that time when the tailwinds are once again driving us forward.

I Am Too Busy To ...

Yesterday, I bought a new road bike. I know this sounds trivial, especially considering I have three mountain bikes in the garage, and ride 4+ days every week. It is significant because I have been saying that I want to purchase a road bike for more than two years. I never found the time to make this purchase. I have just been too busy.